Jin Yina: At swords' points may be flower A only strive for negotiation chip

In extensive network Beijing on Feburary 25 message (reporter Li Yan) England oily company announces Disaiershi 22 days, had begun to resealable bags for food be in the Falkland Islands with England and open to question Argentina, namely archipelago of equestrian Er Venus adds artesian well of coastal waters region. At the beginning of this month, british government allows Petroleum Company to add coastal waters region to have oil exploration and mine in Ma Dao. Argentina expresses to object strongly to this, clique warship blocked the channel that leads to Ma Dao, england also begins to increase defense power of Ma Dao secretly. 1982 England and Argentina erupt equestrian island war after 28 years, foreign archipelago of this Na Daxi envelops the dark clouds in the war again in. So, what means may both sides adopt to settle dispute? What kind of enlightenment is that war 28 years ago having to us? With respect to this one topic, wide military affairs interviewed major general of Jin Yina of director of institute of strategy of national defence university in, make for you detailed and analytic.

New interest of economy of conflict of island of round of horse is more than political interest

Reporter: Recently, england and Argentina are in about Ma Dao dominion dispute problem upgrades once more, this controversy lets England and relation of Argentine two countries changing nervous all the more. Analyse according to you, with what kind of means both sides can settle dispute?

Jin Yina: Ma Dao, argentine respect calls archipelago of equestrian Er Venus, british respect calls a the Falkland Islands, its appellation is different. Conflict of this horse island and completely different 1982, 1982 that time main act with care and effort the attributive problem at territory, basically be oil exploitation problem this. This is together repeatedly actually, because who domin dearfoam slipper best buy ion puts in 's charge, oil extracts who authority puts in 's charge.

The equestrian island conflict 1982, its benefit level follows completely different today. 1982, argentine strive be e the best selling dearfoam slipper nlightened passes to cast off domestic crisis to Ma Dao's recover. Argentina adopts a military affairs to act above all occupational Ma Dao, announce Ma Dao is attributive Argentine respect, caused a war.

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After Ma Dao's battle, conflict became silent for a long time. Because end finally with Argentine be defeated, and law of nations regards a kind of weak force as law, it admits fundamental reality: Force of English use force receives Ma Dao long-term and occupational, what emphasize going up in law of nations repeatedly is attributive.

Although Argentina does not have the dominion that abandons pair of Ma Dao from beginning to end, actually it had become silent for a long time. Till 1998 later, discovery compares old oil store near Ma Dao, of course also media acclaims composition. Because oil has how old industrial exploitation value, need confirms. Want the cost issue that extracts considering oil, is deep-sea oil still shallow sea oil? Does oil exploitation come out natural gas scale and carriage cost? And where does carry go to? For instance carry goes to England, england of equestrian island distance is far it is beyond 1400 kilometers, carriage cost is quite high, and Argentina of equestrian island distance has 600 much kilometers only. But without doubt, near island of horse of 90 time end the discovery of oil natural resources, make British people, Argentine people instigates one round afresh new Ma Dao is attributive authority issue.

Mix this last controversial issue is different, last Argentine war action is prevenient, it is England sends equipment of artesian well of large oil exploration to arrive near Ma Dao this. Argentine navy alleges now the maritime access that wants block to lead to Ma Dao, and already sequestered the Danish cargo that transports oil pipeline to Ma Dao. Be in one round this in the action, argentine respect is on passivity, because Ma Dao is controlled by the Englishman now, argentine respect not reconciled to lets be apart from only the exploitation of natural gas of Ma Dao oil of 600 kilometers is molopolized by England.

So this round equestrian island conflict is mixed on annulus have very big different, basically be the word of political meaning last, so this round contain very big economy increase.

Although flower A is placed the situation of an at swords' points or it is the intimidate that gets negotiation chip only

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Reporter: So bilateral may erupt again war?

Jin Yina: Now although bilateral at swords' points, and Argentine respect took martial action above all, expedited naval naval vessels to block completely the maritime access that leads to Ma Dao. This kind of possibility is very actually little, because Na Daxi vast sea area is very broad, force of Argentine naval itself is not very strong, it is very inaccessible the degree of complete block. But without doubt, argentine respect takes martial action above all, british respect is unwilling also give the impression of weakness, allegedly battleship, opportunity for combat, include a few dogface to fight to had prepared to end repeatedly, both sides places the framework of a pair of at swords' points.

But from the point of the near future, both sides does not want to hit actually. Argentine respect has the advantage of climate, favourable geographical position, support of the people, the onshore airport that 600 kilometers are Argentina, coastal haven can is opposite equestrian island fights make assist effectively. But be defeated enveloped the mind in Argentine deeply 1982, argentina was forced to raise white flag in Ma Dao's army at that time, the government is forced later nonofficeholding. Can you have such risk this so? Is army had courage and fight consciousness? It is a very big question to Argentina. British side issue is very much also, basically be logistics supply, distance England is native land 14000 much kilometers, have the feeling of bit of beyond the reach of one's power quite. Although both sides is in,allege should make sure with the armed strength oneself achieve a goal, but actual both sides prepares without what do good battle not only, and also be willing not quite is action of Fu Zhu war really.

Look so from this level, we aux would rather both sides takes a near future regard as of action of a few wars is mutual intimidate, get the chip with a few taller negotiations through passing intimidate, it still is not action of a kind of war.

Argentina has advantageous state at present, america country supports it without doubt. But is this support had how old deal? This very it's hard to say. Latin America country stays on morality and justice to Argentine support more, the help on bankroll, military affairs is done not have. So support also is finite.

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England can win American support from beginning to end. Supportive underground of the United States, because will look from American respect, do not be willing to offend Latin America country, because the United States regards Latin America country as for a long time the backyard for oneself. But dark medium-counts of the United States holds this apparently, and in a big way of country of supportive unlike Latin America makes a statement, express to support Argentina to be the most popular dearfoam slipper opposite of equestrian island dominion appeal to beg. American support is in the dark, but this kind often is essence in the dark. To Argentina for instance all martial deploy offer information to assist, to England this is very important.

The international that the sources of energy causes conflicts and the war will grow in intensity in future

Reporter: If use a word to generalize, cause Argentina and England the fuse of tight on equestrian island problem situation is oil, so henceforth international conflicts and among the war, what part will the sources of energy and resource act?

Jin Yina: The development as modern society is rapidder and rapidder, long for to petrolic more and more acuteness. Oil is called of industry " blood " , the movement of modern society, include artillery of tank of large dynamo, car, plane, no matter armament or civilian industry system cannot leave oil.

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And oil serves as a k the most popular resealable bags ind cannot reborn resource, its putting an amount is very finite. Before using up all oil dig on the earth in prospective mankind, to petrolic contention will become more and more acuteness.

Once an American has drawn a district, included middle east, on the west inferior, cling to library, Caspian, still hav the best selling resealable bags e Gelujiya, in this the battle produces in the circle conflict is extremely dearfoam slipper sears acuteness. Middle east area, Che Chen and Gelujiya this kind of war drag in manages path access problem to Caspian oil.

Include to be contended for to petrolic to the contention of the sources of energy, it is to cause the mankind to conflict actually a main source, also be up to now, and this problem may become more and more severe in the future.

Enlightenment of equestrian island war: National volition and determination have important sense to warlike victory or defeat

Reporter: That is apart from war of island of flower A horse to had gone 28 years, our farewell crosses a head to see this war now, do you think what kind of enlightenment sense it still has to us?

Jin Yina: This war has a very great enlightenment sense: Argentine respect thinks land is it, want to realize the long-cherished wish that maintains state sovereignty and territorial integrity, with respect to the preparation that must have made each field. From 1982 equestrian island war looks, argentina did not make the preparation that has a cruelty, large-scale battle with England good. It thinks British government is hesitant to equestrian island dominion at that time, because England is versed in party card government office once alleged, can follow Argentine government negotiation with respect to question of equestrian island sovereignty, equestrian island dominion is n hans wilhelm ot certain and attributive England. Government of the Labour Party has had this release what is held, give Argentine government a kind of illusion. Plus in successive years of expense of British national defence is cut down at that time, argentine bad mistake most popular selling hans wilhelm has forbidden to have in Na Daxi ocean starts a large-scale military affairs to act for England, and think Ying Jun has done not have this ability. Argentina passes low estimation opponent, did not do good undertake dimensions of a medium above the preparation of local war, think through army occupational can receive dominion easily, this is Argentine a very big lesson.

The equestrian island war 1982 is right for England, capable cut Mrs. Er at having a premier to scatter, she also is called from this " iron a form of address for one's wife " . England alleges this land is it, that is about to have the resolution of defend. Original Argentine naval force had dispatched, and should ascend archipelago of Venus of Er of mount a horse immediately. British home appears at that time very big question, defense minister Nuo is special to Saqieerfu the person reports, we lost Ma Dao, occupy not know clearly. Scatter the madam that cut Er from safeguard state sovereignty to look, she offers a kind of firm country volition. This lady never has been become arms, but when she becomes national leader, she is in defend is British and Caesarean respect of influence, interest, she shows extremely firm will, and this volition is carried out army and fight go in the action, make England is in safeguard national interest respect to benefit a lot.

A word that so we pass to scattering the madam that cut Er to tell in those days still remain fresh in one's memory, she says: "The banner of British empire must rise afresh in Ma Dao " . Be spread the infection that cuts Er, to pass a bill of British congress full, give military forces island. From here we can see, volition of the strategic judgement of a country, war and determination have important sense to warlike victory or defeat.

Basis of machine of whole England war scatters the madam that cut Er this word begins to run. We can imagine, chancellery of British national defence has thought Ma Dao basically was lost, british combination chief of staff also thinks to fight the meaning is not very big, below this kind of circumstance, scatter the national will that the madam that cut Er shows as national leader, unscramble national volition to behave the volition of the leader that is right of delegate country exercise in great quantities in peacetime according to western politics. 1982 equestrian island war, from the point of British respect, they also can find the will of main leader, crucial in national war action.